Explaining Long Term Trends in Violent Crime

Explaining Long Term Trends in Violent Crime

Gurr and others have demonstrated that the long-term development of homicide rates in Europe follows a U-shaped curve : There is a fairly steady (though non-linear) decline since the 17th century (or even earlier, in some regions) till the middle of the 20th century, and a fairly steady increase sin...

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Izdano u:URI:https://journals.openedition.org/chs,
Glavni autor: Thome, Helmut
Format: Article ou chapitre numérique
Jezik:Anglais
Izdano: Crime, Histoire & Sociétés 2009
Online pristup:Accès Université d'Orléans et IFPM
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spelling openedition-oai:revues.org:chs_738 en https://journals.openedition.org/chs/738 2009-04-02T02:00:00Z info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess article info:eu-repo/semantics/article urn:handle:20.500.13089/dz6e All rights reserved Explaining Long Term Trends in Violent Crime Crime, Histoire & Sociétés Librairie Droz info:eu-repo/semantics/reference/issn/1663-4837 info:eu-repo/semantics/reference/issn/1422-0857 URI:https://journals.openedition.org/chs Thome, Helmut Gurr and others have demonstrated that the long-term development of homicide rates in Europe follows a U-shaped curve : There is a fairly steady (though non-linear) decline since the 17th century (or even earlier, in some regions) till the middle of the 20th century, and a fairly steady increase since the 1960s. It is tentatively assumed in this article that the increase in the second half of the 20th century does not indicate a temporary deviation from the long-term trend but rather a trend reversal. Thus, a theory propounded to explain aggregated homicide rates must account for the secular decline and for the presumed increase as well. It is argued in this paper that Elias 's theory of the processes of civilization and Durkheim's theory on social differentiation and moral development offer a good starting point for constructing such a theoretical account. Based on an analysis of German crime data (1898-1902) some empirical evidence is presented to support Durkheim's hypothesis that the decline of violence follows from the erosion of « collectivism ». Gurr et d'autres auteurs ont démontré que le développement des taux d'homicides sur le long terme suit une courbe en U : on constate un déclin assez constant (quoique non linéaire) depuis le XVIIe siècle (ou même plus tôt, dans certaines régions), et ce jusqu'au milieu du XXe siècle, puis une baisse assez constante depuis les années 1960. On admettra, provisoirement, dans cet article que la baisse de la deuxième moitié du XXe siècle ne constitue pas une déviation par rapport à la tendance à long terme, mais un renversement de celle-ci. Par conséquent, une théorie visant à expliquer les taux agrégés d'homicides doit rendre compte aussi bien de la baisse séculaire que la baisse présumée. Dans cet article, on avancera que la thèse du processus de civilisation d'Elias et celle de la division du travail social de Durkheim constituent de bons points de départ d'une telle théorie. En se basant sur les statistiques criminelles allemandes (1988-1902), on présente quelques données à l'appui la thèse durkheimienne selon le déclin de la violence découle de l'érosion des solidarités collectives.
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language Anglais
format Article ou chapitre numérique
building 0/Bibliothèque numérique/
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description Gurr and others have demonstrated that the long-term development of homicide rates in Europe follows a U-shaped curve : There is a fairly steady (though non-linear) decline since the 17th century (or even earlier, in some regions) till the middle of the 20th century, and a fairly steady increase since the 1960s. It is tentatively assumed in this article that the increase in the second half of the 20th century does not indicate a temporary deviation from the long-term trend but rather a trend reversal. Thus, a theory propounded to explain aggregated homicide rates must account for the secular decline and for the presumed increase as well. It is argued in this paper that Elias 's theory of the processes of civilization and Durkheim's theory on social differentiation and moral development offer a good starting point for constructing such a theoretical account. Based on an analysis of German crime data (1898-1902) some empirical evidence is presented to support Durkheim's hypothesis that the decline of violence follows from the erosion of « collectivism ».
author Thome, Helmut
spellingShingle Thome, Helmut
Explaining Long Term Trends in Violent Crime
author_facet Thome, Helmut
author_sort Thome, Helmut
title Explaining Long Term Trends in Violent Crime
title_short Explaining Long Term Trends in Violent Crime
title_full Explaining Long Term Trends in Violent Crime
title_fullStr Explaining Long Term Trends in Violent Crime
title_full_unstemmed Explaining Long Term Trends in Violent Crime
title_sort explaining long term trends in violent crime
publisher Crime, Histoire & Sociétés
publishDate 2009
container_title URI:https://journals.openedition.org/chs
url https://ezproxy.univ-orleans.fr/login?url=https://journals.openedition.org/chs/738
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